IvyArcIvyArc
3

Great Profit

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 63

Thirsk · Country Music Night Here Next Friday 14th August Handicap · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

17/2

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Much improved in recent weeks, making it a hat-trick of seconds in handicap company behind a well-treated one at Ayr last time (also lost a shoe). Fancied to gain compensation in a race that should set up nicely.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength57%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Ripon 04/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 5f Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS4/0655 @ Redcar 21/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 5f GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS21/0654 @ Hamilton 02/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR - · 6f6y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS2/0844 @ Carlisle 18/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 62 · 6f195y Sft 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 62 par18/054OR 626 @ Ayr 20/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 60 · 5f Sft 132 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 60 par20/066OR 606 @ Hamilton 16/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 60 · 5f7y Goo 135 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 60 par16/076OR 606 @ Ayr 27/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 63 · 6f Goo 134 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 63 par27/076OR 63projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-27Ayr62nd2nd0
2026-07-16Hamilton62nd2nd0
2026-06-20Ayr62nd2nd0
2026-05-18Carlisle48th6th+2
2025-08-02Hamilton44th2nd+2
2025-06-21Redcar56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0618/0527/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/06/20257th10/382%14%-0.68
21/06/20256th15/261%17%-0.44
02/08/20254th17/255%0%-0.55
18/05/20268th200/10%30%+0.30
20/06/20262nd66/10%86%+0.86
16/07/20262nd9/153%86%+0.33
27/07/20262nd17/255%88%+0.32