Overbudget
3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 63
Thirsk · Country Music Night Here Next Friday 14th August Handicap · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Doncaster | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Goodwood | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wetherby | 4 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-05-04 | Windsor | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-03-31 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2025-10-21 | Yarmouth | 4 | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 21/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 31/03/2026 | 2nd | 30/100 | 98% | 75% | -0.23 |
| 04/05/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 22% | -0.49 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 60% | +0.55 |
| 12/06/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 26/06/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 38% | -0.47 |