Real Jack
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 62
Thirsk · Country Music Night Here Next Friday 14th August Handicap · 6f
#11
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Ayr | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Thirsk | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Southwell | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-07 | Southwell | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-24 | Newcastle | 5 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-11-04 | Redcar | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 43% | +0.38 |
| 04/11/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 24/11/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 07/04/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 55% | -0.14 |
| 07/05/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 58% | +0.06 |
| 20/06/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |