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6

Soul Warrior

3yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 58

Thirsk · Country Music Night Here Next Friday 14th August Handicap · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

22/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Surprise winner (40/1) of 6f Redcar nursery last September. Standout effort this season when beaten less than 2 lengths in this grade at Ripon (6f) last month. Returns to his age group following lesser effort on first try over 7f at Ayr latest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength55%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Haydock 10/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 6f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS10/0844 @ Ripon 26/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 5f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Newcastle 08/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR - · 5f Sta 133 · HIGHER CLASS8/0955 @ Redcar 24/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 56 · 5f217y Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/09/2025 · OR 56 par5 @ Newcastle 21/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 62 · 6f Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/03/2026 · OR 62 par21/035OR 626 @ Doncaster 14/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 61 · 6f2y Goo 131 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Ripon 06/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 59 · 6f Goo 129 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 59 par6/076OR 596 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 59 · 7f50y GF 132 · below its mark20/07/2026 · OR 59 par20/076OR 59projClass-projected finish: 8th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-20Ayr65th5th0
2026-07-06Ripon63rd3rd0
2026-06-14Doncaster610th10th0
2026-03-21Newcastle58th7th+1
2025-09-24Redcar51st0th+1
2025-09-08Newcastle58th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0824/096/0720/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 11
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength7%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/08/20258th25/10%0%0.00
26/08/20258th100/10%0%0.00
08/09/20258th150/10%42%+0.42
24/09/20251st40/10%100%+1.00
21/03/20268th11/271%0%-0.71
14/06/202610th14/126%31%+0.04
06/07/20263rd6/168%75%+0.07
20/07/20265th22/10%20%+0.20