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Penny Express

6yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 102

Wexford · Think Print & Design Maiden Hurdle · 2m 180y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

94%

Place Prob

70%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair maiden hurdler who wasn't disgraced when fourth of 13 in maiden at this course (17f, good) 15 days ago. Likely to be in the shake-up.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Tramore 14/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 2m160y Yie 15814/04C8C8 @ Downpatrick 09/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 2m5f180y Gd 166C8 @ Listowel 02/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR - · 2m Goo 1662/06C8C8 @ Downpatrick 15/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 108 · 2m2f185y Yie 166 · below its mark15/06/2025 · OR 108 parBHA108 @ Tipperary 03/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 108 · 2m4f90y Goo 164 · below its mark03/07/2025 · OR 108 par3/07108OR 108C8 @ Tramore 15/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 107 · 2m80y Gd 166 · below its mark15/08/2025 · OR 107 parC8 @ Listowel 30/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 17 · OR 106 · 2m100y Goo 166 · below its mark30/05/2026 · OR 106 par30/05C8OR 106C8 @ Kilbeggan 10/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 106 · 2m2f160y Goo 158 · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 106 parC8 @ Wexford 23/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 103 · 2m150y Gd 158 · below its mark23/07/2026 · OR 103 par23/07C8OR 103projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-23Wexford?4th4th0
2026-07-10Kilbeggan?5th5th0
2026-05-30Listowel?4th4th0
2026-05-14ClonmelBHA107−3
2025-08-15Tramore?3rd3rd0
2025-07-17KillarneyBHA108−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0415/0630/0523/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 16
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength88%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 16.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/04/20254th5/174%57%-0.17
09/05/20253rd11/142%75%+0.33
02/06/20252nd9/276%93%+0.17
15/06/20252nd10/382%93%+0.10
03/07/20254th11/142%79%+0.36
15/08/20253rd4/179%75%-0.04
30/05/20264th28/10%81%+0.81
10/07/20265th4/179%43%-0.36
23/07/20264th4/179%75%-0.04