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Plastic Paddy

8yo Gelding · 11-12

Wexford · Think Print & Design Maiden Hurdle · 2m 180y

#9

Rank

Odds

300/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★ Timeform

Commentary

Poor on the Flat nowadays and has been pulled up all starts over hurdles. Easily passed over.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength96%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: +1.9
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA56 @ Bellewstown 26/08/2025 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR 56 · 7f195y Goo 138 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/08/2025 · OR 56 par26/0856OR 56BHA50 @ Cork 10/09/2025 · Pos 19th of 21 · OR 50 · 7f Sft 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/09/2025 · OR 50 parBHA45 @ Gowran Park 20/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 45 · 1m Hvy 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 45 par20/0945OR 45BHA63 @ Dundalk 10/10/2025 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 63 · 7f Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/10/2025 · OR 63 parBHA56 @ Dundalk 05/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 56 · 7f Std 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/11/2025 · OR 56 par5/1156OR 56BHA50 @ Dundalk 26/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 50 · 1m Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/11/2025 · OR 50 parBHA46 @ Dundalk 05/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 46 · 1m Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/12/2025 · OR 46 par5/1246OR 46BHA44 @ Dundalk 12/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 44 · 1m Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/12/2025 · OR 44 parBHA41 @ Bellewstown 02/07/2026 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR 41 · 7f211y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 41 par2/0741OR 41projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-23Wexford?0
2026-07-02BellewstownBHA4114th9th+4
2026-05-27Wexford?+1
2026-05-13Punchestown?0
2025-12-12DundalkBHA446th2nd+4
2025-12-05DundalkBHA465th1st+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0810/105/122/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 16
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength52%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/08/202514th66/10%7%+0.07
10/09/202519th100/10%10%+0.10
20/09/202510th80/10%36%+0.36
10/10/202513th80/10%8%+0.08
05/11/202510th80/10%31%+0.31
26/11/20258th66/10%46%+0.46
05/12/20255th25/10%67%+0.67
12/12/20256th20/10%62%+0.62
02/07/202614th50/10%7%+0.07