5
Backwithyourown
6yo Mare · 11-6 · OR 90
Wexford · Treo Eile Mares Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 180y
#10
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Kilbeggan | BHA93 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Wexford | BHA93 | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-02 | Clonmel | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-09-05 | Kilbeggan | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-07 | Sligo | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-25 | Kilbeggan | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 17
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength40%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/03/2025 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 45% | +0.03 |
| 24/04/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 77% | +0.61 |
| 17/05/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 11/07/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 25/07/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 07/08/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 05/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 92% | +0.11 |
| 02/10/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 10/07/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |