1
Chosen Shant
10yo Mare · 12-0 · OR 98
Wexford · Treo Eile Mares Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 180y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
99%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Wexford | BHA91 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Wexford | BHA85 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Roscommon | BHA86 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Listowel | BHA99 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Wexford | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Clonmel | BHA102 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 17
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/2025 | 5th | 250/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 20/11/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 16/04/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/05/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 150/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 01/06/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 08/06/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 54% | +0.38 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 92% | +0.09 |