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9

Erne Star

7yo Mare · 10-7 · OR 77

Wexford · Treo Eile Mares Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 180y

#13

Rank

Odds

200/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Tailed off in bumper/3 maiden hurdles back in 2023. Can only be watched following such a lengthy absence on handicap debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 14.8 /10 (raw 14.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Tipperary 01/10/2023 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 2m50y Yie 1591/10C?C8 @ Limerick 22/10/2023 · Pos 11th of 18 · OR - · 2m Sft 16022/10C8C8 @ Down Royal 11/11/2023 · Pos 15th of 19 · OR - · 2m190y Sft 15911/11C8C8 @ Leopardstown 26/12/2023 · Pos 24th of 28 · OR - · 2m Yie 15426/12C8projClass-projected finish: 16th of 17
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2023-12-26Leopardstown?24th24th0
2023-11-11Down Royal?15th15th0
2023-10-22Limerick?11th11th0
2023-10-01Tipperary?9th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/1022/1011/1126/12
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 17
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength12%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/10/20239th66/10%27%+0.27
22/10/202311th100/10%41%+0.41
11/11/202315th150/10%22%+0.22
26/12/202324th200/10%15%+0.15