3
Tropical Twist
5yo Mare · 11-9 · OR 93
Wexford · Treo Eile Mares Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 180y
#8
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Wexford | BHA93 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Wexford | BHA93 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Bellewstown | BHA94 | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-21 | Navan | BHA95 | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-21 | Perth | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Downpatrick | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 17
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 03/10/2025 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 10/10/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |
| 21/10/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 43% | +0.01 |
| 03/07/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |