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7

Splashing Out

8yo Mare · 10-10 · OR 113

Wexford · Neville Hotels Handicap Hurdle · 2m 180y

#7

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Returned to form back over hurdles at Downpatrick in May and built on that to land a 6-runner handicap at Tramore (2m, good) later that month. Her inconsistency again reared its head when well beaten at Galway 9 days ago, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C10.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Wexford 04/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 113 · 2m3f100y Yie 149 · below its mark04/04/2025 · OR 113 par4/04C8OR 113BHA110 @ Down Royal 31/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 110 · 2m100y Goo 156 · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 110 parC8 @ Down Royal 20/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 114 · 2m115y Yie 153 · below its mark20/01/2026 · OR 114 par20/01C8OR 114BHA112 @ Thurles 19/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 112 · 2m2f Sft 154 · below its mark19/02/2026 · OR 112 parBHA112 @ Downpatrick 29/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 112 · 2m1f165y Yie 168 · below its mark29/03/2026 · OR 112 par29/03112OR 112C8 @ Tramore 19/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 110 · 1m7f110y Yie 159 · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 110 parBHA107 @ Downpatrick 08/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 107 · 2m1f165y Goo 163 · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 107 par8/05107OR 107BHA107 @ Tramore 29/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 107 · 2m Goo 153 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 107 parBHA113 @ Galway 29/07/2026 · Pos 18th of 20 · OR 113 · 2m110y Gd 154 · below its mark29/07/2026 · OR 113 par29/07113OR 113projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-29GalwayBHA11318th18th0
2026-05-29TramoreBHA1071st1st0
2026-05-08DownpatrickBHA1073rd3rd0
2026-04-19Tramore?7th7th0
2026-03-29DownpatrickBHA1128th8th0
2026-02-19ThurlesBHA1126th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0419/028/0529/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength19%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/04/20256th10/147%44%-0.03
31/10/20251st14/126%100%+0.74
20/01/20267th25/10%0%0.00
19/02/20266th14/126%58%+0.32
29/03/20268th28/10%22%+0.22
19/04/20267th10/147%14%-0.33
08/05/20263rd14/126%82%+0.56
29/05/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
29/07/202618th20/10%11%+0.11