2
Charlie's Dilemma
7yo Gelding · 11-13 · OR 99
Wexford · SIS Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 3m
#8
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C8.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Wexford | BHA100 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Limerick | BHA100 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Ballinrobe | BHA102 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Tramore | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Musselburgh | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2024-11-29 | Thurles | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 17
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2024 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 04/09/2024 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 92% | +0.18 |
| 07/10/2024 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 92% | +0.21 |
| 07/11/2024 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 01/02/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 19/04/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 26/05/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 02/07/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |