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15

Fair Damsel

8yo Mare · 11-10 · OR 96

Wexford · SIS Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 3m

#17

Rank

Odds

22/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#17

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sole success came in a Killarney maiden hurdle in 2024 for previous yard. Has shaped as if back in form for the Cian Collins stable in recent months, but likely needs a career best to feature and didn't convince with her stamina for this sort of test last time. RESERVE.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 10.0 /10 (raw 6.8)

Highest class: BHA50
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Killarney 06/10/2024 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 2m1f Goo 1536/10C8BHA102 @ Sligo 25/10/2024 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 102 · 2m1f176y Yie 168 · below its mark25/10/2024 · OR 102 parBHA102 @ Kilbeggan 24/04/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 102 · 1m7f110y Goo 161 · below its mark24/04/2025 · OR 102 par24/04102OR 102BHA51 @ Navan 22/10/2025 · Pos 21st of 23 · OR 51 · 1m6f Sft 133 · beat its mark22/10/2025 · OR 51 parBHA50 @ Punchestown 15/02/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 50 · 1m7f165y Hvy 163 · beat its mark15/02/2026 · OR 50 par15/0250OR 50C8 @ Clonmel 26/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 102 · 2m76y Hvy 150 · below its mark26/02/2026 · OR 102 parBHA100 @ Tramore 20/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 100 · 2m5f Goo 168 · below its mark20/04/2026 · OR 100 par20/04100OR 100BHA98 @ Wexford 16/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 98 · 2m4f Goo 154 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 98 parBHA98 @ Roscommon 06/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 98 · 2m7f180y Gd 166 · below its mark06/07/2026 · OR 98 par6/0798OR 98projClass-projected finish: 9th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-06RoscommonBHA985th5th0
2026-05-16WexfordBHA985th5th0
2026-04-20TramoreBHA10012th12th0
2026-02-26Clonmel?6th6th0
2026-02-15PunchestownBHA5011th11th0
2025-10-22NavanBHA5121th21th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/1022/1020/046/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 17
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength66%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 16th of 17. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/10/20241st9/276%100%+0.24
25/10/20244th6/168%73%+0.04
24/04/202511th17/255%23%-0.32
22/10/202521st33/10%9%+0.09
15/02/202611th33/10%23%+0.23
26/02/20266th16/116%29%+0.13
20/04/202612th28/10%27%+0.27
16/05/20265th66/10%69%+0.69
06/07/20265th22/10%73%+0.73