5
Gerrys Wish
5yo Mare · 11-7 · OR 93
Wexford · SIS Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 3m
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Wexford | BHA91 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Cartmel | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-12 | Sligo | BHA93 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Galway | BHA91 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-25 | Perth | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Navan | BHA89 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 17
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength55%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06/2025 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 08/08/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 15/08/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 62% | +0.14 |
| 29/08/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 20/09/2025 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 53% | -0.15 |
| 25/09/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 93% | +0.33 |
| 12/05/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 36% | -0.22 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 92% | +0.44 |