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4

Bayonetta

8yo Mare · 11-8 · OR 94

Wexford · Pat Farrell Memorial Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1) · 2m 4f 55y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

97%

Place Prob

79%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Long-standing maiden who posted at least respectable efforts when in frame on first 3 starts this season. Went off too hard back down in trip at Downpatrick last time and very much the type to get back on track returning to a more suitable trip. Solid place claims again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA95 @ Down Royal 30/08/2024 · Pos 16th of 19 · OR 95 · 3m Goo 161 · below its mark30/08/2024 · OR 95 par30/0895OR 955 @ Perth 14/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 100 · 2m7f180y Gd 168 · below its mark14/05/2025 · OR 100 parBHA91 @ Downpatrick 15/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 91 · 2m2f185y Goo 160 · below its mark15/07/2025 · OR 91 par15/0791OR 915 @ Perth 16/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 99 · 2m7f180y Gd 168 · below its mark16/08/2025 · OR 99 parBHA92 @ Downpatrick 25/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 92 · 2m3f100y Gd 158 · below its mark25/08/2025 · OR 92 par25/0892OR 924 @ Perth 13/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 98 · 3m2f127y GS 159 · below its mark13/05/2026 · OR 98 parBHA92 @ Downpatrick 22/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 92 · 2m5f180y Goo 161 · below its mark22/05/2026 · OR 92 par22/0592OR 925 @ Perth 02/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 97 · 2m4f35y Gd 166 · below its mark02/07/2026 · OR 97 parC8 @ Downpatrick 14/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 95 · 2m1f165y Gd 161 · below its mark14/07/2026 · OR 95 par14/07C8OR 95projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-14Downpatrick?4th4th0
2026-07-02Perth52nd2nd0
2026-05-22DownpatrickBHA922nd2nd0
2026-05-13Perth44th4th0
2025-08-25DownpatrickBHA923rd3rd0
2025-08-16Perth53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0816/0822/0514/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 17
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 17. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/08/202416th7/163%17%-0.46
14/05/20255th11/271%33%-0.38
15/07/20253rd12/137%78%+0.41
16/08/20253rd11/142%71%+0.29
25/08/20253rd13/266%71%+0.06
13/05/20264th28/10%70%+0.70
22/05/20262nd12/137%93%+0.56
02/07/20262nd5/174%89%+0.15
14/07/20264th11/271%70%-0.01