15
Keep The Head
8yo Mare · 10-9 · OR 81
Wexford · Pat Farrell Memorial Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1) · 2m 4f 55y
#16
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.7 /10 (raw 9.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Wexford | BHA84 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Wexford | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-12-02 | Clonmel | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-11-21 | Fairyhouse | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-29 | Wexford | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-08-08 | Wexford | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 17
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength22%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 17th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2024 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 04/07/2025 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 08/08/2025 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 21/11/2025 | 9th | 250/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 23/07/2026 | 14th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |