12
Esticky End
8yo Gelding · 10-9 · OR 79
Wexford · Pat Farrell Memorial Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2) · 2m 4f 55y
#3
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Wexford | BHA73 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Wexford | BHA72 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Tramore | BHA72 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-16 | Wexford | BHA72 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Down Royal | BHA72 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-12 | Dundalk | BHA50 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 17
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/01/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 13/04/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 23/04/2025 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 27/11/2025 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 12/12/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 26/12/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 79% | +0.26 |
| 16/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |