15
Little Boy Sivola
5yo Gelding · 10-7 · OR 77
Wexford · Pat Farrell Memorial Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2) · 2m 4f 55y
#13
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.6 /10 (raw 9.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA80 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-13 | Downpatrick | BHA81 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Clonmel | BHA84 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-03-17 | Down Royal | BHA87 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Limerick | BHA90 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-29 | Roscommon | BHA93 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 17
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength24%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/2025 | 14th | 80/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 15/06/2025 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 07/07/2025 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 25/07/2025 | 9th | 100/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 29/09/2025 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 29% | +0.23 |
| 19/10/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 17/03/2026 | 12th | 11/1 | 42% | 35% | -0.07 |
| 14/05/2026 | 14th | 8/1 | 58% | 13% | -0.45 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |