1
Poppycon
6yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 96
Wexford · Pat Farrell Memorial Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2) · 2m 4f 55y
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
78%
Place Prob
63%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Sligo | BHA94 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Listowel | BHA95 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Tramore | BHA95 | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-17 | Wexford | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-18 | Punchestown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-29 | Thurles | ? | 16th | 16th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 17
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength80%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 3rd | 66/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 29/01/2026 | 16th | 66/1 | 0% | 12% | +0.12 |
| 18/02/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 17/03/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 89% | +0.63 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 82% | +0.24 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 93% | +0.45 |