6

Royal Tiara

5yo Mare · 11-11

Wexford · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Flat Race · 2m 160y

#3

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Getaway mare who left her debut form well behind when third of 12 in Killarney bumper (17f, good) 3 weeks ago. Tongue strap on for 1st time and must enter calculations.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Limerick 31/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 2m3f Sft 16531/03C?C0 @ Killarney 17/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 2m1f Goo 15817/07C?projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 3
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-17Killarney?3rd3rd0
2026-03-31Limerick?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0317/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 12
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/03/20268th28/10%30%+0.30
17/07/20263rd33/10%82%+0.82