Big Baby Henry
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 87
Woodbine · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-11-07 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-24 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 14/09/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 26/09/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 24/10/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 07/11/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 69% | -0.04 |
| 29/11/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |