4

Instant Response

3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 67

Woodbine · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 7f

#7

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move2
Strength66%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +2.1
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Woodbine 08/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 5f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS8/06C6C6 @ Woodbine 22/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 75 · 5f110y Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/06/2025 · OR 75 parC6 @ Woodbine 11/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 84 · 5f Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/09/2025 · OR 84 par11/09C6OR 84C6 @ Woodbine 10/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 84 · 1m110y 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/10/2025 · OR 84 parC7 @ Woodbine 26/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 75 · 7f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/10/2025 · OR 75 par26/10C7OR 75C7 @ Woodbine 23/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 68 · 6f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/11/2025 · OR 68 parC7 @ Woodbine 20/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 70 · 5f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/06/2026 · OR 70 par20/06C7OR 70C7 @ Woodbine 06/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 69 · 1m Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/07/2026 · OR 69 parC7 @ Woodbine 24/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 70 · 5f110y 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 70 par24/07C7OR 70projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-24Woodbine?3rd1st+2
2026-07-06Woodbine?6th4th+2
2026-06-20Woodbine?3rd1st+2
2025-11-23Woodbine?5th3rd+2
2025-10-26Woodbine?9th7th+2
2025-10-10Woodbine?4th1st+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0610/1020/0624/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 9
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength35%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/06/20253rd12/137%67%+0.30
22/06/20252nd12/137%83%+0.46
11/09/20253rd11/271%60%-0.11
10/10/20254th12/137%40%+0.03
26/10/20259th4/179%11%-0.68
23/11/20255th11/486%33%-0.52
20/06/20263rd5/287%50%-0.37
06/07/20266th20/10%29%+0.29
24/07/20263rd6/168%60%-0.08