Gus's Drumbeet
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 69
Woodbine · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-11-21 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-10-12 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 12/10/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 21/11/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 13/12/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 03/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |