Mac Gowan

3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 81

Woodbine · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

97%

Place Prob

81%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength42%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +0.7

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-20	Woodbine	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-06-26	Woodbine	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-06-11	Woodbine	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2
2026-05-15	Woodbine	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2
2026-03-28	Turfway Park	?	6th	4th	+2	5.8
2026-02-15	Turfway Park	?	10th	8th	+2	1.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 7

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength57%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
11/01/2026	7th	25/1	0%	45%	+0.45
15/02/2026	10th	12/1	37%	18%	-0.19
28/03/2026	6th	9/1	53%	17%	-0.36
15/05/2026	5th	4/1	79%	33%	-0.46
11/06/2026	5th	11/4	86%	33%	-0.52
26/06/2026	1st	9/4	88%	100%	+0.12
20/07/2026	2nd	9/4	88%	80%	-0.08