1
Somekinda Mischief
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 69
Woodbine · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-01 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 23/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 21/12/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 01/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 22/02/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 08/03/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 24/05/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 24/07/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |