Border Fox
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 52
Woodbine · Race 4 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 6.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 10th | 12th | −2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-10-06 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-08-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 06/10/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 03/11/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 26/06/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |