5
Celestial Heart
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 66
Woodbine · Race 4 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength88%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 08/11/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 23/11/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 10/05/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |