8
Bourbononaholiday
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 64
Woodbine · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Woodbine | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-14 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength60%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2025 | 10th | 5/1 | 74% | 10% | -0.64 |
| 30/05/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 20/06/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 18/10/2025 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 14/11/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 14% | -0.52 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 16/05/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |