4
Captivating Name
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 77
Woodbine · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
79%
Place Prob
47%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength76%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 29% | -0.32 |
| 20/07/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 17/08/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 14/09/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 26/10/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 21/11/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 44% | -0.37 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |