5
Conacher
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 72
Woodbine · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-13 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength82%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/2025 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 86% | -0.10 |
| 24/08/2025 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 11% | -0.47 |
| 01/09/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 44% | -0.27 |
| 28/09/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 13/10/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |
| 20/11/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 13/12/2025 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |