5
Category Five
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 78
Woodbine · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength34%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 22/11/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 29/05/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 26/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 20/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |