7
Halcon Negro
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 71
Woodbine · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-11-23 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength24%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 07/09/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 77% | +0.51 |
| 26/09/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 18/10/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 23/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 90% | +0.37 |
| 13/12/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 56% | -0.02 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 20/07/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |