3
Commander At Sea
7yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 88
Woodbine · Race 7 - Claiming · 7f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-31 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength65%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 18/07/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 26/09/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 31/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 22/11/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 26/04/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 07/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |