4
Alfred Bellows
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 78
Woodbine · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
58%
Place Prob
36%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Woodbine | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-12-12 | Woodbine | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength15%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 01/09/2025 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 23/10/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 23/11/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 12/12/2025 | 10th | 6/1 | 68% | 10% | -0.58 |
| 03/05/2026 | 11th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 26/06/2026 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 14% | -0.75 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |