5
Big Lew
5yo Horse · 8-13 · OR 66
Woodbine · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
18%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength37%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 26/09/2025 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 22% | -0.60 |
| 18/10/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 01/11/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 26/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 24/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 19/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |