1
Dilwaala
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 51
Woodbine · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-12 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-23 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-11 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength64%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 22/08/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 29% | -0.35 |
| 19/09/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 11/10/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/11/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 12/12/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |