8
Ginger's Holiday
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 70
Woodbine · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength55%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2024 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 22/08/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |
| 07/09/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 69% | +0.53 |
| 04/10/2025 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 13% | -0.45 |
| 26/10/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 08/11/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 23/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 19/06/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |