Good To Be Lucky

4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 66

Woodbine · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

10%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength25%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.2

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-10	Woodbine	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-06-20	Woodbine	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-05-29	Woodbine	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2025-12-13	Woodbine	?	1st	0th	+1	5.0
2025-11-23	Woodbine	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2024-10-20	Woodbine	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 10

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength2%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
22/09/2024	2nd	10/1	47%	86%	+0.38
20/10/2024	3rd	10/1	47%	82%	+0.34
23/11/2025	2nd	5/1	74%	88%	+0.14
13/12/2025	1st	4/1	79%	100%	+0.21
29/05/2026	5th	10/3	82%	50%	-0.32
20/06/2026	5th	6/1	68%	20%	-0.48
10/07/2026	5th	4/1	79%	20%	-0.59