2
Lemon Twist
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 76
Woodbine · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-12 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength76%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09/2025 | 6th | 15/8 | 90% | 0% | -0.90 |
| 01/10/2025 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |
| 08/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 20/11/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 12/12/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 26/04/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |