Lumberyard

5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 77

Woodbine · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

12%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength40%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.7

Today:

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-21	Fort Erie	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-07-07	Fort Erie	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0
2026-06-21	Fort Erie	?	2nd	-1th	+3	5.0
2026-06-06	Woodbine	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-05-03	Woodbine	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2025-08-01	Woodbine	?	8th	8th	0	2.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 10

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▬

Strength41%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
15/06/2025	6th	11/2	71%	17%	-0.54
04/07/2025	4th	11/2	71%	50%	-0.21
18/07/2025	5th	7/1	63%	56%	-0.08
01/08/2025	8th	5/1	74%	22%	-0.51
03/05/2026	5th	13/2	66%	60%	-0.06
06/06/2026	5th	11/2	71%	43%	-0.28
21/06/2026	2nd	7/4	91%	83%	-0.07
07/07/2026	3rd	9/4	88%	60%	-0.28
21/07/2026	6th	7/2	82%	0%	-0.82