IvyArcIvyArc
3

Barden

2yo Colt · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 71

Belmont Park · Race 1 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 6f

#9

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#9

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 15/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 5f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS15/05C6C6 @ Saratoga 03/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 68 · 5f110y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 68 par3/09C6OR 68projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Saratoga?5th4th+1
2026-05-15Belmont At The Big A?5th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/053/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 8-8 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength23%

Delivery trend -17.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/05/20265th25/10%20%+0.20
03/09/20265th9/153%56%+0.03