IvyArcIvyArc
2

Rufus The Red

2yo Colt · 8-11 · Draw 2 · OR 74

Belmont Park · Race 1 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 6f

#8

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 07/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS7/08C6C6 @ Saratoga 03/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 77 · 5f110y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/09/2026 · OR 77 par3/09C6OR 77projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Saratoga?6th5th+1
2026-08-07Saratoga?7th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/083/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 6-6 · tight 71/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength41%

Delivery trend +1.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/08/20267th9/276%45%-0.31
03/09/20266th5/174%44%-0.29