12
Ardagh Red
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 12 · OR 94
Belmont Park · Race 10 - Allowance · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-05-16 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2024-12-06 | Dundalk | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2024-11-20 | Dundalk | ? | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 8-12 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -25.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/11/2024 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 06/12/2024 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 16/05/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 05/09/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |