8
Foligno
4yo Colt · 8-12 · Draw 8 · OR 99
Belmont Park · Race 10 - Allowance · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-12-27 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-27 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 2-9 · tight 58/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▲
Strength58%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/01/2025 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 73% | -0.17 |
| 18/03/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 88% | -0.03 |
| 11/05/2025 | 9th | 10/3 | 82% | 27% | -0.55 |
| 10/07/2025 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 18/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 28/09/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |
| 27/11/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 27/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 24/01/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |