1
Glavine
3yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 1 · OR 104
Belmont Park · Race 10 - Allowance · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
26%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼1
Strength70%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.6
Today:
Class gap: +1.4
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 1st | +5 |
| 2026-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | -1th | +4 |
| 2026-05-10 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 3-11 · tight 50/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength47%
Delivery trend -11.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 89% | +0.63 |
| 10/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 08/08/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |