3
Instability
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 3 · OR 99
Belmont Park · Race 10 - Allowance · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-12 · tight 24/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength52%
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |
| 25/07/2026 | 7th | 5/4 | 93% | 25% | -0.68 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |