IvyArcIvyArc
9

Just For Luck

6yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 9 · OR 100

Belmont Park · Race 10 - Allowance · 1m

#6

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Belmont At The Big A 12/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 100 · 1m110y Fm 124 · below its mark12/09/2025 · OR 100 par12/09C7OR 100C7 @ Laurel Park 17/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 101 · 1m110y Fm 123 · below its mark17/10/2025 · OR 101 parC7 @ Aqueduct 14/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 100 · 1m110y Fm 123 · below its mark14/11/2025 · OR 100 par14/11C7OR 100C8 @ Gulfstream 02/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 100 · 1m110y Fas 121 · below its mark02/01/2026 · OR 100 parC7 @ Gulfstream 29/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 100 · 1m 121 · beat its mark29/01/2026 · OR 100 par29/01C7OR 100C6 @ Gulfstream 07/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 98 · 1m4f Fm 123 · below its mark07/03/2026 · OR 98 parC5 @ Belmont At The Big A 10/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 96 · 1m110y Fm 126 · beat its mark10/05/2026 · OR 96 par10/05C5OR 96C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 20/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 96 · 1m Fm 126 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 96 parC6 @ Saratoga 08/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 99 · 1m3f Fm 126 · below its mark08/08/2026 · OR 99 par8/08C6OR 99projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-08Saratoga?4th5th−1
2026-06-20Belmont At The Big A?1st2nd−1
2026-05-10Belmont At The Big A?1st1st0
2026-03-07Gulfstream?6th7th−1
2026-01-29Gulfstream?1st3rd−2
2026-01-02Gulfstream?3rd6th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/092/0110/058/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 69/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength81%

Delivery trend +0.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/09/20255th14/126%56%+0.29
17/10/20252nd11/271%88%+0.16
14/11/20253rd5/174%80%+0.06
02/01/20263rd15/261%60%-0.01
29/01/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
07/03/20266th11/271%44%-0.27
10/05/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
20/06/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
08/08/20264th10/147%67%+0.19