7
Overseer
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 7 · OR 87
Belmont Park · Race 10 - Allowance · 1m
#11
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: -2.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-08-16 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-03-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 10th | −4 |
| 2025-11-14 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 42/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength77%
Delivery trend +10.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/02/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 08/03/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 16/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 02/09/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 89% | +0.63 |