11
Shirl's Soul Town
4yo Colt · 9-0 · Draw 11 · OR 98
Belmont Park · Race 10 - Allowance · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 4-12 · tight 45/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength4%
Delivery trend -41.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 09/08/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |