10
Twain
4yo Colt · 8-12 · Draw 10 · OR 93
Belmont Park · Race 10 - Allowance · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-10 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-31 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 10-12 · tight 83/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 17/05/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 14/06/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 31/07/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 44% | -0.32 |
| 23/08/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 10/09/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 08/08/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 17% | -0.71 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 78% | +0.25 |